2026 Projections

Through Week 6 · every team’s current roster, optimal lineup off Sleeper’s weekly player projections, 6,000-sim Monte Carlo of the rest of the season · updated Oct 23

Through Week 6: Jake projects out front. The rest of you are somewhere between "in the hunt" and "already thinking about the draft."

#TeamPts/WkProj. RecordPlayoffsTitleLast
1JakeCold Bears on IcemanJake141.910.6–3.4100%48%0.0%
2MikeGibbs me your buttholeMike129.59.3–4.796%16%0.0%
3BlakeGod Damn JettsBlake118.18.6–5.481%4.7%0.0%
4BradSleeper App Gambling BotBrad127.78.3–5.785%6.5%0.0%
5SeanKim jong un's playersSean124.57.9–6.175%7.9%0.0%
6Gabe2 Mikes, 1 KuppGabe123.37.0–7.049%6.7%0.1%
7CodyCwoods51Cody126.46.5–7.543%5.7%0.2%
8RyanCook’n in the HamptonsRyan113.06.3–7.718%0.7%0.4%
9ScottLove Brown SpearsScott116.96.2–7.822%1.4%0.2%
10TrevorNacua MatataTrevor124.45.9–8.126%2.5%0.9%
11BrettNFL YoungBoyBrett111.65.3–8.75.8%0.1%1.1%
12TylerSir Nix-A-LotTyler98.52.1–11.90.0%0.0%97%

The Tape

Jake
1. JakeCold Bears on Iceman · proj 10.6 wins · 141.9 pts/wk · 48.2% title

12th last year, 1st now — the roster finally showed up.

QB Brock Purdy 20.4RB Jonathan Taylor 17.4RB Bucky Irving 16.9WR Nico Collins 17.9WR Christian Watson 17.7TE Sam LaPorta 12.9DEF HOU DEF 9.3WR Drake London 16.6WR Jalen Coker 15.7
Mike
2. MikeGibbs me your butthole · proj 9.3 wins · 129.5 pts/wk · 15.8% title

Quietly projects 2nd after finishing 11th. Nobody's talking about you, which is how you like it.

QB Jared Goff 18.9RB Jahmyr Gibbs 25.5RB Chuba Hubbard 16.3WR Luther Burden III 12.6WR DK Metcalf 12.5TE Brock Bowers 16.1DEF LAR DEF 6.8RB Roschon Johnson 9.9WR Keenan Allen 8.1
Blake
3. BlakeGod Damn Jetts · proj 8.6 wins · 118.1 pts/wk · 4.7% title

Up from 8th to a projected 3rd. Enjoy it before the regression notices.

QB Caleb Williams 18.7RB Derrick Henry 17.9RB Rhamondre Stevenson 11.1WR Amon-Ra St. Brown 19.5WR Tee Higgins 15.2TE Travis Kelce 11.6DEF MIN DEF 8.8WR Wan'Dale Robinson 10.3TE Colston Loveland 9.8
Brad
4. BradSleeper App Gambling Bot · proj 8.3 wins · 127.7 pts/wk · 6.5% title

70-88 for your career and this year won't move it much.

QB C.J. Stroud 19.1RB Kyren Williams 19.9RB Javonte Williams 17.5WR Ja'Marr Chase 18.9WR Garrett Wilson 16.9TE Michael Mayer 7.1DEF NYJ DEF 8.6WR DeVonta Smith 13.8RB J.K. Dobbins 10.5
Sean
5. SeanKim jong un's players · proj 7.9 wins · 124.5 pts/wk · 7.9% title

5th, 8 wins, no notes. Aggressively adequate.

QB Patrick Mahomes 16.1RB Kenneth Walker III 19.4RB Quinshon Judkins 11.2WR CeeDee Lamb 17.4WR Michael Wilson 12.6TE Tucker Kraft 11.6DEF CLE DEF 8.6WR Carnell Tate 12.4WR Courtland Sutton 9.0
Gabe
6. Gabe2 Mikes, 1 Kupp · proj 7.0 wins · 123.3 pts/wk · 6.7% title

76-82 for your career and this year won't move it much.

QB Joe Burrow 19.5RB Bijan Robinson 22.7RB Braelon Allen 7.4WR A.J. Brown 14.9WR Devaughn Vele 10.3TE Trey McBride 15.3DEF SEA DEF 7.2TE Juwan Johnson 10.4WR Jordan Addison 8.4
Cody
7. CodyCwoods51 · proj 6.5 wins · 126.4 pts/wk · 5.7% title

Projected 7th, outside the cut. The roster says spectator.

QB Drake Maye 21.7RB Breece Hall 14.1RB Zonovan Knight 7.6WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 23.7WR Matthew Golden 15.4TE Isaiah Likely 11.9DEF BAL DEF 6.2TE Dallas Goedert 11.1WR Caleb Douglas 6.2
Ryan
8. RyanCook’n in the Hamptons · proj 6.3 wins · 113.0 pts/wk · 0.7% title

3rd to 8th in one offseason. Impressive, in a way.

QB Dak Prescott 16.1RB Ollie Gordon II 13.1RB Tyler Allgeier 11.4WR Zay Flowers 19.3WR Ryan Flournoy 7.1TE Pat Freiermuth 9.7RB Kendre Miller 8.9TE Mike Gesicki 8.2
Scott
9. ScottLove Brown Spears · proj 6.2 wins · 116.9 pts/wk · 1.4% title

Down from 1st to a projected 9th — the window didn't close, it got bricked over.

QB Lamar Jackson 21.7RB Jaylen Warren 17.0RB Chase Brown 14.9WR Chris Olave 17.1WR Emeka Egbuka 10.7TE T.J. Hockenson 9.6DEF SF DEF 6.8RB Saquon Barkley 13.8RB Aaron Jones Sr. 11.8
Trevor
10. TrevorNacua Matata · proj 5.9 wins · 124.4 pts/wk · 2.5% title

Down from 5th to a projected 10th — the window didn't close, it got bricked over.

QB Bryce Young 18.6RB Ashton Jeanty 16.0RB D'Andre Swift 15.8WR Puka Nacua 22.3WR Malik Nabers 13.7TE Tyler Warren 10.5DEF PIT DEF 8.1RB Woody Marks 14.7WR Rashee Rice 12.8
Brett
11. BrettNFL YoungBoy · proj 5.3 wins · 111.6 pts/wk · 0.1% title

Down from 2nd to a projected 11th — the window didn't close, it got bricked over.

QB Kirk Cousins 15.6RB Christian McCaffrey 21.0RB Josh Jacobs 11.8WR Jameson Williams 11.9WR George Pickens 11.7TE Harold Fannin Jr. 11.0DEF NE DEF 6.3WR Germie Bernard 11.6RB RJ Harvey 11.4
Tyler
12. TylerSir Nix-A-Lot · proj 2.1 wins · 98.5 pts/wk · 0.0% title

Projected 12th with a 96% shot at dead last. Measure your mantel for the toilet.

QB Bo Nix 19.2RB Isaiah Davis 0.4RB Kaleb Johnson 0.2WR Justin Jefferson 16.9WR Jaylen Waddle 12.8TE George Kittle 16.6DEF DEN DEF 8.2WR Denzel Boston 10.9WR Rome Odunze 10.9

Projected points come from Sleeper’s weekly player projections with the optimal lineup set each week (bench points don’t count). Roasts by the house AI off each team’s real numbers.